Cyreenik Says
A Blunder starts with a rise in underlying stress. It starts when conventional solutions enacted by conventional leaders don't solve a problem. When that happens the community gets worried, gets discouraged, and starts looking seriously at what were previously too radical solutions being offered by wannabe leaders who were too radical to be seriously considered.
If something novel and scary pops up on top of this underlying stress... Boom! It's Blunder time!
This 26 Sep 11 Economist article, Gloomier and Gloomier in the Free Exchange blog, talks about how both Europe's and America's leaders have not been able to either solve this years-long economic crisis with conventional solutions or come up with the leadership gumption to produce bold solutions.
Ouch! People of the world are getting nervous. And this means The Time of Nutcases is getting closer. The Time of Nutcases happens when the community starts paying more and more attention to leaders offering radical solutions. Nine out of ten of those solutions offered are just plain nuts, and can be hugely damaging. The 1930's Time of Nutcases spawned the leaders and political movements that became World War Two. But other of those radical ideas and leaders, the one in ten that had true gems, also formed the basis for the six decades of prosperity that followed World War Two.
This is serious stuff... both ways!
I hope this time, thanks to things such as better technology, better communication, more education and more prosperity, our upcoming Time of Nutcases produces the better results much faster.
...I'm hoping.
In the meantime, watch out for Blunders and watch out for even more Blunder groundwork being laid. The elections of 2012 all around the world should produce very interesting results.
Update: A 3 Oct 11 Economist Buttonwood article, Another month, another Monday, another mess, talking about how conventional solutions to the Euro crisis aren't working, and policy makers aren't trying anything unconventional. Another symptom that the Time of Nutcases is coming to European affairs.
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