Cyreenik Says
Late Sunday the news broke that Kim Jong-il had died. The news is exciting, but this is likely to be as much a non-event as Kim Il-sung's death was in 1994. (his father)
It's going to be a non-event for the same reason: The winds of change have not blown across North Korea. As best I can tell from the news of the country, the leadership has not changed its mind about what is best for the country and the people. The leadership still believes that opening the country will be "Selling out to The Man". As long as that remains the dominant belief of the leadership, it will be business as usual for the people.
It's seems to be a media sleeper right now, but watch out! This one promises to be the seismic geopolitical political change of 2012. It's also novel and scary, so watch for many blunders around it.
Basically, we are about to see the end of alliance-style relations between the US and Pakistan. I think both sides are now tired of the two-faced relation that was sustained by the War on Terror. In 2012 we will have the bitter divorce. Watch for it. I've written more here in the Editorial section.
Update: Here's a 17 Feb 12 Washington Post article, At Iran-Afghanistan-Pakistan summit, a show of unity by Richard Leiby, about an Iranian, Afghan, Pakistani summit, and a related AP article, Pakistan vows to progress with Iran pipeline deal. The change is coming.
Update: This 1 Aug 13 Reuters article, U.S., Pakistan agree to start new chapter in long-strained relations by Lesley Wroughton and Maria Golovnina, talks about Secretary of State Kerry announcing yet another patching up effort. From the article, "With Pakistan's economy badly in need of support and the United States keen on smoothly withdrawing most of its troops from neighboring Afghanistan next year, both sides will see positives in repairing the relationship.
Speaking after talks with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in Islamabad, Kerry - who as a senator sponsored legislation to provide $7 billion in assistance to Pakistan over 5 years - said the two countries were serious about overcoming past irritants."
And once the troops are out? Then what? The US won't need Pakistan any more than it needed Vietnam in 1975 when Congress pulled the plug on spending to support the Vietnamese military there.
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