Cyreenik Says
I have been taking a course in Modern Middle East history. One of the repeating patterns the course textbook reveals is how many times since the beginning of the 1800's the regions-then-nations of the Middle East have tried to jump on the industrializing/modernizing bandwagon and failed. Each of these regions have had many governments in succession who have attempted to invest big bucks into bringing their region into modern times in terms of military, business and agricultural institutions, and failed. And the failures were expensive -- these governments borrowed lots of money and granted valuable concessions for little return on the social progress front. As an example, the Iranian Revolution of 1979 brought watershed social change to the Iranian people, and new possibilities to the region, but little prosperity.
I think about this in the context of the 1990/2000's and The Age of BRIC. The 1990/2000's were a time when commodity prices were booming, and China was undergoing dramatic urbanizing and industrializing. The net result was that four countries -- Brazil, Russia, India and China -- prospered mightily. But now -- in the mid-2010's -- times have changed again: the oil and other commodities booms have tapered off, and China's urbanizing boom has peaked and is now moderating.
Do these changes mean the world is going to move on and leave the Age of BRIC behind? And with the Middle East modernizing experience in mind: Which of these countries will continue to prosper and which will fall off the industrializing bandwagon yet again?
Ah... more excitement in the world of economic and social forecasting.
As I pointed out in the Aug 2014 comments six months ago, one of the distinctive characteristics of this Syrian Conflict is how many foreigners have come to play. This is still happening, and it is now getting a lot more media attention. But curiously, the media people have not talked about this similarity to the International Brigades of the 1936 Spanish Civil War. This pattern has not popped up for them.
I see this as important because it may reveal much about what will happen to these soldiers in the aftermath. Think of Earnest Hemingway, along with many others, and his writing of "For Whom the Bell Tolls".
This 9 Feb 15 WSJ article, Venezuela Confronts Retail Sector Caracas Arrests CEO of Chain Store, Seizes Business, Alleging It Hoarded Goods; 20 Other Executives Held by Ezequiel Minaya and Sara Schaefer Muñoz, describes the Venezuelan government sinking even deeper into delusion. The government is now arresting retailers for hoarding.
From the article, "Retailing is becoming an increasingly risky business in Venezuela, a country struggling with shortages of basic goods, soaring prices and hours long customer lines.
In the past week, the CEO of supermarket chain Día Día was arrested after a meeting in the presidential palace, two dozen of its store managers brought in for questioning, and all 35 stores taken over by the government.
Behind the Venezuelan government’s moves is its allegation that Día Día and other chains are hoarding food in an attempt to sow instability and overthrow the government.
Companies reject that charge. “If you want the cooperation of private enterprise the best way to get it is probably not by arresting people coming out of the presidential palace,” said José Aguerrevere, the founder and part owner of Día Día supermarket chain, who wasn't arrested."
I predict change is coming soon, and it will be a government change because the government is being delusional. But beyond that there will be many surprises. (See my editorial on Blame "Them")
Is it Shark Jumping Month for jihadist terrorists? Between Charlie Hebdo last month and this Kasasbeh Jordanian pilot burning this month, the extreme jihadist terrorists have made a pair of advertising statements that the overwhelming majority of the world seems to agree are in poor taste.
As described in this 4 Feb 15 WSJ article, Islamic State’s Killing of Jordanian Pilot Sparks Outrage Brutal Tactics of Militant Group Shake Arab Nations by Nour Malas in Beirut and Suha Ma’ayeh in Amman, Jordan, much of the world, including the Arab world, is outraged.
From the article, "Outrage spread across the Arab world on Wednesday over an Islamic State video purporting to show the burning to death of a captive Jordanian pilot, while Jordan vowed to press its campaign against the extremists.
The video released Tuesday appeared to show First Lt. Muath al-Kasasbeh being burned alive inside a cage. It shook other Arab governments involved in U.S.-led airstrikes against Islamic State in Syria and Iraq and raised fresh alarm over the group’s brutal tactics.
Jordan responded early Wednesday by executing two convicted terrorists, one of whom the government had offered to swap for the pilot’s release."
It appears that at this stage of these extreme jihadist movements, the leaders are letting their tribal instincts shape their judgment. This kind of thinking worked well in the Agricultural Age environment when such brutality could be dismissed as ugly rumor by those who did not want to believe. But with today's pervasive videoing ability... and these leaders thinking this kind of shock and awe is a great way to promote their cause... I sense they need some new PR consultants.
The 24 Jan 15 issue of Economist magazine had two articles I found insightful concerning the virtues of government central planning. The first of these, The great sprawl of China How to fix Chinese cities, talks about how much China's cities have grown since the turn of the century. It is an impressive amount and it has been well handled.
From the article, "Breakneck urban growth has propelled China’s rise in the past three decades. Migration from the countryside has helped expand the urban population by 500m—the biggest movement of humanity the planet has seen in such a short time. Over half the population is now urban. Some live in the basements of apartment blocks, or in shacks built in courtyards. But Chinese cities have mostly avoided the squalor of many developing-world ones."
The biggest movement of humanity the planet has seen in such a short time... Wow! Congratulations to the Chinese central planners. They have done well.
Further on is an article about Venezuela, Empty shelves and rhetoric The government offers no solutions to a mounting economic crisis, which talks about how Venezuela's central planning government has been doing it wrong.
From the article, "But the shortages are undermining support for the autocratic regime’s “21st-century socialist” experiment, especially among the poor, its intended beneficiaries.
...
The government insists it is the victim of “economic warfare” waged by the opposition. According to one official, the children of the rich are “infiltrating people into the queues” to cause trouble. "
The moral here: Central planning can work, just as capitalism can work, just as democracy can work. But all these systems can also be terribly mucked up if leadership is allowed to pursue their self-interests rather than the long-term interests of the community. What is more important than which system is used is that the citizens be informed. They need to understand their situation and be ready, willing and able to support leadership that has a clear grasp on what is going to work well for all the people, and for a long time.
-- The End --