Cyreenik Says
This is the fun part of learning history: seeing current events as resembling an older series of historical events and then doing some predicting based on that.
The new pattern that is emerging in my mind is the similarities between the emerging Baby Boomers of the Generation Gap 1960's and the emerging Tender Snowflakes of the 2010's. Here are the similarities I see:
o Both are disrupting college campuses with protests calling for college affairs to be conducted in new ways.
o Both are taking place with a long, unpopular and unsolved war going on in the background.
o Both are taking place with a lot of social discontent and frustration throbbing through many communities that has little connection to the college campus issues.
That's a lot in common. There are differences, of course, and here are a few:
o Exploring Microaggression and Trigger Warnings is nowhere near as fun as exploring Free Speech and Liberated Sexuality.
o Thanks to Obama's restraint the US does not have boots on the ground in the war quagmire. The amplifying crisis of US soldiers lives being lost in a steady stream has been dodged.
o It is now the Boomers who are doing the head-scratching and muttering "Kids these days..."
Where will this lead us?
Based on the pattern... into new and different social territory.
On the bad news side: This time it looks as if the pendulum is swinging sharply toward conformity and intolerance. This is going to hurt for a lot of reasons, but the heart of the issue is that these college activist Tender Snowflakes are showing no tolerance for the real world that is happening around them. As in, they are being delusional. And delusion always leads to very expensive choices.
On the good news side: There is so much innovation that is going on not far away from these college campus crusades -- the thousands of hot new businesses that are springing up in incubators around the nation. Which leads to the exciting question of how these two patterns are going to mix with each other -- intolerance and innovation?
As is also a common pattern, the next ten years are going to be interesting times.
As spectacular as the Paris Terror Attacks are, there are bigger problems brewing for the US and the world. One of these is the transformation of prestigious US college campuses from centers of learning about new ideas and concepts into safe havens for Tender Snowflakes -- those current teenagers and young adults who feel seriously damaged when they hear about ideas that are not part of their comfortable world view.
This is a serious problem because this Tender Snowflake style of thinking is delusional, it is, by definition, out of touch with reality. The problem with this is that as adults these people are going to have to make decisions within this harsh reality context that they don't want to be exposed to, and as a result the choices they make are going to be poor ones. The plans they choose to follow will be silly, expensive and not solve the problems they are trying to solve.
The good news is: in thirty five years, or so, this will no longer be true.
As the world gets more automated in its manufacturing, transportation and service sectors, humans are doing less in these sectors. This means their ability to make good choices in these sectors will matter less and less. The automated machines will be making the good choices. By the year 2050 we will be able to support Tender Snowflake delusion because the choices humans make won't matter much.
So, ironically, we are in a passing phase. But it is a very real problem for the next ten years, or so -- in our current times and places human decision making is important and makes a difference in how well our world runs.
We can't afford this Tender Snowflake delusion luxury yet.
This 13 Nov 15 WSJ article, The Rise of the College Crybullies The status of victim has been weaponized at campuses across the nation, but there is at least one encouraging sign. by Roger Kimball, covers this topic.
This has been a sad year for France in the terror arena. First Charlie Hebdo in January, now the Paris attacks of November. (It doesn't get as much coverage but Beirut also suffered terrible attacks in this current round.)
What to take away from this... serial terrorism? Is there a lesson to be learned from these high-profile tragedies?
The lesson I take from these is the importance of enfranchisement. The fact that France is suffering serial terrorism tragedies indicates that the feeling of disenfranchisement is way too high among some of the people living there.
To reduce the popularity of Terror Theater, work hard on building enfranchisement among all the people living in France. This won't be easy, and the recipe won't be a simple one, but when it is discovered and implemented it will be effective.
Fascinating... the panic and blundering created by this French incident seems to be surging big-time in the US. This 16 Nov 15 WSJ article, Republican Governors Object to White House Syrian Migrant Policy Opposition to plan to settle 10,000 people in next year comes amid terror fears by Byron Tau and Kristina Peterson, talks about many US governors opposing Syrian refugees. Ten thousand is a small number to start with compared to what Europe is taking in, but for many in the US that seems to be way too many. Sadly in 2015 it seems that political frustration, terrorist fears and Nativism are making a potent electoral mix in the US.
It is sad seeing it happen because I have a lot of respect for the Wall Street Journal, but in this 6 Nov 15 editorial, A Terror Warning in Sinai The ISIS threat will become global unless it is defeated soon., they are partaking in a classic panic and blunder exercise.
The root of this particular panic and blunder cycle is the fear-of-flying instinct that many travelers have. Yes, these people get in planes and fly, but in their hearts they feel a lot of worry. They are, in effect, being very brave people every time they walk up that loading ramp. And when something goes wrong with flying, anywhere, their instinctive worry-thinking flares strongly.
Big Media helps this worry instinct flare by making every commercial airliner crash a huge media circus. This is case of perverse symbiosis: they report it this way because people are so interested. Terrorists attacking airplanes are simply latching on to this symbiosis to advertise their causes -- it is very cost effective for them.
The converse way to treat terrorism, and airline crashes, is as Business as Usual. As in, "Stuff happens. It's bad. But lets get on with life." This appears to be the approach President Obama is taking, and I applaud him for it. In this case I agree wholeheartedly with what the article is saying President Obama has said, "In February the President was asked by the Vox website whether “the media sometimes overstates the level of alarm people should have about terrorism.” “Absolutely,” he replied, adding that level of attention given to terrorism is “all about ratings.”"
In sum, the root folly here is Big Media advertising the terrorist cause. Stop that. Get on with Business as Usual. Do that, and the terrorists will stop using terror to advertise because it gets them no positive feedback. They will search out other ways to promote their causes. Taking this advice to heart will not be easy to do. It goes against powerful instinctive thinking in airline passengers and Big Media. (And now it is being joined by social media coverage too.) But succeeding at this will make our world a better place.
This thought was brought on by a pair of Economist articles about the Mid-East Migrant Crisis and how it is affecting Germany. According to the articles Germany is planning on bringing in roughly a million migrants over the year. These people are coming into a population of about 80 million. (This is big, but not as big as the US immigration of the 1900-10 era which brought in roughly 10 million to a population of roughly 100 million.)
From what the articles describe the German people and government are doing well to prepare for this influx -- they are preparing places to live and educate these people, and have a mostly positive attitude about doing so. (This treatment, by the way, is night-and-day different from how Palestinian refugees got treated by the neighboring regions as the Israeli state was created in 1948. Those people were mostly isolated and ignored for decades.)
So, the interesting question for me is: What difference will these migrants make to Germany and how Germans live? Here is my prediction:
These people are, in effect, immigrants. They are the brightest and best of the places they are leaving from. Given a chance, in Germany they will be hard-working and ambitious. The result should be a renaissance for the German economy and culture beginning about five-to-ten years from now. I see big changes and big surprises coming, and on the whole they will be good changes and surprises.
Here are the articles I mentioned in 24 Oct 15 The Economist, German flexibility No one was sure Germany could handle its migrant crisis. It turns out it can, and, Refugee realpolitik Angela Merkel’s response to the migrant crisis is less emotional, and more risky, than it looks.
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