Cyreenik Says

June 2016 issues

The Brexit Vote -- Time of Nutcases in Europe

The Time of Nutcases is when the conventional leadership of the community is not living up to the community's expectations, so the community is searching around and seriously listening to people with alternative solutions.

The Brexit Vote -- the UK people voting in favor of leaving the EU -- is an example of this happening. The UK people are deeply unhappy with how the "Bureaucrats in Brussels" have been leading the EU, in particular its impact on UK lifestyle.

This is part of the pattern of the 2010's acting like the 1930's, with 2016 acting most like the year 1937 -- there is a lot of frustration and discontent with how slowly the world has been recovering from the 2008 crash that happened many years ago now. The big difference between 2016 and 1937 is that a second recession has not started -- perhaps we have learned, we will see.

Another pattern of history that this Brexit vote looks like is the American Revolution, with the UK playing the part of the colonies and the EU playing the part of the British Empire. If that is so, this could be a Lesson Learned time for the EU leadership. They can learn that their leadership is not inevitable and they need to be much more responsive to their constituencies -- they need to learn to "rule with a light hand" as the British imperialists did after losing the colonies.

This 24 Jun 16 WSJ article, Britain Delivers Stunning Rejection to EU Prime Minister David Cameron says he will step down after referendum makes nation first to leave 28-nation bloc by Jenny Gross, offers a summary of the vote and its ramifications.

From the article, "Britons’ startling vote to leave the European Union rattled financial markets and threatened to weaken an already strained continent, instantly reshaping Britain’s political scene as Prime Minister David Cameron announced he would step down.

With all voting areas counted early Friday, Leave beat Remain 51.9% to 48.1%, in a decision that will sever the U.K.’s ties with the EU after 43 years."

Update: WSJ writers are now seeing the parallel with the 1930's. This 27 Jun 16 article, How the 1930s Echo in Today’s Politics A rebellion against the existing order, a rise in nationalism and a retreat from international entanglements. Today’s tensions sound like the 1930s. by Gerald. F. Seib, talks specifically about the parallel.

From the article, "Lingering economic anger and anxiety. A rebellion against the existing political order. A rise of nationalism and a retreat from international entanglements.

After last week’s “Brexit” vote in Britain, and amid a tumultuous U.S. presidential campaign, that sounds like a description of the political lay of the land in 2016. In fact, it’s a description of global sentiment in the 1930s, which increasingly looks like the best parallel to today’s environment."

Update: The surprises continue. This 26 Jun 16 Economist article, Britain is sailing into a storm with no one at the wheel by Bagehot, talks about the deep vacuum in the political leadership situation in Britain.

From the article, "But at the top of British politics, a vacuum yawns wide. The phones are ringing, but no one is picking up.

Mr Cameron has said nothing since Friday morning. George Osborne, the chancellor of the exchequer, has been silent. (This afternoon I texted several of his advisers to ask whether he would make a statement before the markets open tomorrow. As I write this I have received no replies.) The prime minister’s loyalist allies in Westminster and in the media are largely mute."

And now the Orlando Blunder Chain adds a link -- House Sit-in over voting on gun laws

This 22 Jun 16 WSJ article, Democrats Occupy House Floor to Compel Votes on Gun Bills Scores of representatives stage a sit-in; House forced into recess by Kristina Peterson and Natalie Andrews, talks about Democratic legislators moving from filibuster to sit-in to get a vote taken on a series of new gun control laws.

From the article, "Led by civil-rights champion Rep. John Lewis (D., Ga.), at least 170 House Democrats staged a “sit-in,” occupying the floor of the House chamber in an effort to extract votes from Republican leaders on bills that would expand background checks for guns and prevent suspected terrorists from buying firearms."

In our decade-long Era of Acrimony, this is an other example of being acrimonious. This continuing acrimony is why we are currently experiencing The Time of Nutcases which has brought Trump and Sanders such high profiles in this current election cycle.

Now the Orlando Night Club Shootings Blunder Chain is adding to the acrimony. Not good... not good... The Time of Nutcases grows stronger.

The Orlando night club shootings: Over one hundred people panic and blunder

I admit it: this is a jaw-dropper for me. A single man with a single rifle goes into a night club with a hundred plus people in it and manages to kill 49 and wound another 50+... this is not a common event.

This is a panic and blunder situation. The panicked people are the night club attendees. Their blunder was: doing nothing. They did nothing to stop this person after his intent on mayhem became clear.

Doing nothing is common as a panic response. What is uncommon is that in this case over a hundred people came up with this same response. No person; no group of people; chose to rush this guy, overwhelm him, and end the shooting spree.

Something to keep in mind about this situation is Lesson Learned. (my term) Even if no new laws, policies or regulations are enacted, a shooting of this sort -- as in, reaching this magnitude -- will not happen again for more than a decade. Why? Because people have learned. If a guy walks into a bar pulls a rifle and starts shooting, this next time many people will quickly move to stop him -- they have the Orlando experience on their mind and they will take action. They have learned. An example of this learning is the fourth plane in the 9-11 Disaster. When those passengers learned what had happened to the three previous planes, they took action, and their action crashed the plane in a remote field in Pennsylvania instead of some famous landmark in Washington, DC.

In sum, we have the blunder, and it was a potent one. Now we get to see what kind of Blunder Chain (my term) it turns into. How many more expensive mistakes will come about because this happened?

"The world isn't ending... again! [sigh] Time to head home." ISIS warriors are reconsidering

As I predicted in the summer of 2014 ISIS's foreign warriors are following the pattern of the International Brigades of the 1936 Spanish Civil War, and like them, after long years of fruitless fighting, many are now getting discouraged. The End of the World hasn't happened (the world-wide spread of the Caliphate) and many participants are now seeing it as an impossible dream. Time to move on.

This 6 Jun 16 WSJ article, Islamic State Members From the West Seek Help Getting Home Disenchanted followers of the extremist group are trying to get out of Syria by Maria Abi-Habib, talks about ISIS soldiers from Europe getting discouraged and wanting to return home.

From the article, "Disenchanted Islamic State members recruited from the West have increasingly been contacting their governments and asking for help in getting home, according to diplomats and a Syrian network that aids defectors. ...

The Western diplomats said about 150 citizens from just their six countries have sought help to flee or did so on their own since the departures began to ramp up in the fall. The overall number of Westerners who joined Islamic State in Syria and Iraq and then returned home isn't known, but Western officials have said several hundred fighters have come back to Europe."

This open discouragement signals two trends that are likely to show up soon in the ISIS community:

o Just as with the Spanish Civil War many of the participants are idealists seeking to make our world a better place, and now they are deeply discouraged and bitter. They will return home, and be peaceful there, but their ISIS Experience will be adding flavor to European cultural expression over the next couple of decades. (my favorite prediction is "movie ISIS" replacing "movie Nazis" as war-related villains)

o This is signaling that a deep split is likely to show up soon within those who remain ISIS enthusiasts. This split will weaken the movement and be the beginning of its end as a high-profile important player in Middle East events. It will continue on as a powerful legend, but its real world influence will drop to near-zero.



-- The End --