Cyreenik Says

March 2018 issues

Forecasting how driverless cars will be owned and used

Driverless cars are going to be bringing big changes to car use and ownership. This is something I've been forecasting for about five years now. The big change I've been forecasting is Uber-style use of driverless cars, as in, call one up on a personal communication system, get in, ride to the destination, get out, and both the passenger and the car go their separate ways. These Uber-style cars will be just part of a wider mix of cyber-owned and run vehicles which will be moving people and cargo from place to place all over the world.

The newer twist that I have been forecasting for about six months now is that cars will divide into two categories: the above mentioned Uber-style, and those that become objects of personal expression. This latter sort will be privately owned, as 2010's cars are, and will be real fancy compared to 2010's cars. They will be objects of personal expression, much as horses, art and violins are in the 2010's.

These car styles will be quite different. The Uber-style will be utilitarian in design and functional in looks. The personally owned cars will be fancy looking and equipped with lots of options. It will be quite easy to pick out one from the other as they drive down the street.

This is my current forecast for the future of cars. I am not alone in this forecasting. This 5 Mar 18 Economist article, Why driverless cars will mostly be shared, not owned, talks about how car ownership will change as driverless cars become common.

From the article, "WHEN will you be able to buy a driverless car that will work anywhere? This commonly asked question contains three assumptions: that autonomous vehicles (AVs) will resemble cars; that people will buy them; and that they will be capable of working on all roads in all conditions. All three of those assumptions may be wrong."



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