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Cyreenik Says

July 2018 issues

The Population Bust is coming soon

Following World War Two (ended in 1945) there was lots of worry about the Population Bomb -- this was Baby Boom time and the world population was growing rapidly. This worry is still felt by many people in the 2010's, but the world's circumstances have changed dramatically: in fifty years undercrowding rather than overcrowding is going to become the worldwide trend.

What has changed?

The biggest change is the dramatic rise in urbanization. This matters because city people have much lower fertility rates than country people. This has been true ever since cities were invented four thousand years ago. The change in city dwelling in our time has been dramatic. In 2009 half the world became urbanized.

So the population question for the 4th quarter of the 21st century is going to be how to encourage more kids, not how to discourage them. And it is going to be interesting to see how technology is used to address this issue.

Yes, indeed, the world keeps changing in surprising ways.

This 30 Jun 18 Economist article, South Korea’s fertility rate is the lowest in the world The population is ageing even faster than in Japan, talks about how South Korea's fertility has rapidly dropped over the last five decades and is now even lower than Japan's.

From the article, "The fertility rate, which suggests how many children the average woman will have over her lifetime, stood at just 1.05 last year, the lowest in the world and far below the “replacement rate” of about 2.1 needed to sustain a population. In Seoul, the capital, the rate is just 0.84. Though South Koreans are not as old as their Japanese neighbours, they are ageing faster."

 

 

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