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Cyreenik Says

May 2019 issues

Brexit is bringing dream changing to the UK

It is impressive just how much Brexit is disorganizing British politics. Instead of just two sides on this issue there are now many, and there are many choices for a party and party leader to back, and many choices for who is going to replace Teresa May as Prime Minister. This is going to go down as a very confusing time in British social and political history.

This is a surprising twist. This new twist is being caused by the distinctive dream changing that is coming with the unfolding of this issue. Brexit is a new circumstance in British history and the way it is unfolding is also new. The result is there is a lot of dream changing going on in UK societies right now, this is likely to lead to a lot of dream changing going on in the UK economy, which means a mild recession is coming soon.

This 30 May 19 Economist article, Britain’s constitutional time-bomb, gives some feel for the magnitude of this dream changing.

The "Brexit Hangover" arrives on schedule, even if Brexit doesn't

On the emotional level Brexit is an End of the World (EOW) event. It is in the pattern of The Hong Kong Turnover of 1997 and Y2K of 1999. The pattern is to have lots of doom-and-gloom forecasting going on in the media before the event, and then having the event itself turn into a smoothly transitioning non-event. Going on in the background, and not talked much about, is a lot of risky investing mania taking place leading up to the event. The event is then followed by a "hangover" -- a mild stock market crash mixed with a mild recession. The Hong Kong Turnover was followed by the Asian Flu recession and Y2K was followed by the Dotcom Bust. If this pattern is followed for Brexit, it is time for the Brexit Hangover (my term) to begin. It too will be a mild market bust and recession.

These EOW events are molded by instinctive thinking, this thinking form comes from the semi-nomadic lifestyle that is part of Stone Age living -- every so often things change, and so does home, and it is time to move on. This changing home instinct expresses itself in many ways; these investing manias followed by short-term busts are one of them.

Note that the current reason the media is giving for the market decline is tension in US-China trade negotiations, but the timing is perfect for a Brexit Hangover.

 

 

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