Cyreenik Says

January 2020 issues

Surprise update: The Ukrainian plane crash was caused by Iranian missiles

An unexpected part of the Iran revenge shooting of missiles at US bases in Iraq was the downing a civilian aircraft at the Tehran airport. The Ukraine airlines flight crashed in the timeframe of the missile shooting and it was downed by an Iranian military screw-up. This high profile military screw-up is going to take a lot of wind out of the hot vengeance sails that Iranians are currently experiencing. This means that the magnitude of the regrettable action associated with the assassination will be diminished and the action is likely to be delayed.

Cooler heads are likely to prevail, which is really good news.

Hold on to your hats! It's time for a big regrettable action!

High profile assassinations provoke lots of social outrage. That outrage is often expressed as a big action taken on by the outraged community that is later seen as something deeply regrettable.

Some examples:

Lincoln assassination --> post-Civil War Reconstruction Era

Archduke Ferdinand assassination --> World War One

JFK assassination --> Vietnam War

9-11 wasn't an assassination but the effect was similar and the deeply regrettable action was the 2nd Gulf War. (the 1st Gulf War, by contrast, went excellently) (Here is more I've written on this pattern)

Now we have two Iranian leaders, Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Mohandes, assassinated by a US drone strike. We will soon get to see what action gets started by the Iranians that will end up becoming deeply regrettable, by them and the rest of the world.

Hold your breath! This is now a spooky time!



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