Cyreenik Says

April 2020 issues

The Coronavirus Crisis is transforming into a Black Swan event

The Coronavirus Crisis is getting big and unique. This is turning it into a Black Swan event -- it is something important in the economic realm and evolving in surprising ways. It is not fitting a familiar pattern. One example: This 24 Apr 20 WSJ article, Coronavirus Projected to Trigger Worst Economic Downturn Since 1940s by Paul Kiernan, talks about the forecasted downturn. On the same day the stock indexes are up one percent. The surprises in both the social and economic realms are likely to continue for many months. This Black Swan is a big one and will stay memorable for quite a while.

A recession is a time of dream changing

"An economic recession is a time for dream changing for businesses and communities."

This is one of my sayings and it has great relevance right now. The Coronavirus Panic is changing things in both the social and economic environments. There will be a recovery, but many things will stay changed. People are learning new habits, and many of those will remain strong even after the crisis passes. We will recover, but there will be many changes from how things were done "in the good old days". What parts of social distancing will stay with us? Some examples: How much of a comeback will crowded concerts and sports events make? How much of office meeting time will stay video-based? How much will lots and lots of cleaning stay with us?



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