Cyreenik Says
October Surprises in election years are usually planned ahead of time by one party or the other. In this year we are starting October with a big and real surprise: Trump and his wife have caught COVID. This is not too big a surprise, actually, since Trump has downplayed the COVID threat and been lax about precautions. But the timing is surprising.
One of the big uncertainties this adds is what happens if Trump stops running? Who do Republicans offer in place of him? Is the election delayed while they decide? Is all the election delayed or just the presidential choice? Update: Trump's recovery was impressively smooth -- there have been few lasting ripples. I consider this Phase Two of this surprise, it is also surprising.
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