by Roger Bourke White Jr., copyright October 2015
The Next Big Thing (NBT) is my term for an industry or other activity that a community invests in that gives positive feedback to the community -- the more the community invests in it, the more the community economy grows. Examples from the first half of the 20th century are railroads, steel, and labor-saving household appliances. Examples from the early 21st are smart phones, biotech and apps.
The positive feedback sustains a boom. And the boom runs out of steam when the positive feedback is replaced with diminishing returns. When the diminishing happens the economy dips into recession as business slows down. If this is an economy that recovers, as in, doesn't decline into a backwater where people of the community spend most of their time reminiscing on the Good Old Days, then businesses and governments hustle up their searches for the following NBT that will replace the busted current NBT, and finds at least one, often more than one.
What follows in this chapter are descriptions of what NBT's look like -- what the pattern is. (This is a sequel to the Recessions are Dream Changing Chapter.)
As a new technology becomes widely accepted it changes how people do things. The changes can be straightforward -- they can let people do what they've always been doing but faster, better and cheaper -- but more often they are surprising -- they let people do new things in new ways. Example: Advancing refrigeration technology produced home refrigerators, a straightforward change from the previous ice boxes.
It also produced air conditioners, a surprising change that allowed hot, humid southern climates to become more comfortable year-round. And it produced refrigerated shipping which allowed meats and other food products to be shipped far and wide. This allowed Argentina, Australia and New Zealand ranchers and farmers to prosper mightily.
Closer to home, the refrigerator change allowed a larger variety of foods to be stored for longer periods at home. This change at home changed what was offered at supermarkets, more fresh produce could be offered, and ice cream. It also allowed TV dinners to thrive, a surprise application which changed how family meals were conducted. TV dinners is an example of a surprising change.
The surprising changes are a disruption. They change how things are done, and they change the society's "winners" and "losers". The TV dinner winners were moms who put in less time on meal preparation, and those who wanted to eat at odd hours. The loser was the sit-together family dinner.
The moral: The spreading around of a significant new technology is a scary thing for many of those experiencing it. A melodramatic example of a scary change is when an old widow is told she must leave the house she has been living in for twenty years because a railroad needs the land.
Because of the positive feedback, when an NBT industry is at the core of a change there is intense economic pressure to implement it quickly. "This change is going to be profitable! It's going to bring well-paying jobs to the community! Let's get at it! If we don't, someone else will take our place!" This means the social changes become intense, which builds the social unrest surrounding it as well. There was mild discussion about the effects of TV dinners during the 50's and 60's, but that was it: TV dinners were not positive feedback, they were not an NBT industry. Steel, autos, and railroads, on the other hand, were pushed hard and created such intense controversy that whole new political philosophies were evolved to deal with the changes they caused. Coping with the social stress caused by the positive feedback of these industries (rapid industrialization) spawned the popularity of Liberalism, Capitalism, Progressivism, Socialism, Communism and Fascism.
These stressors of the first half of the 20th century were called heavy industry. They were called that because to implement them called for sucking up lots of money, land and other resources. The "heavy" referred to their capital requirements. (not the products, which was what I presumed as a youngster)
The stressors of the second half -- electronics and software -- were different. They were medium and light industries. They sucked up intellectual talent much more than anything else, which is why the term Information Age was coined in the 1990's. And this made a big difference in how much and the style of social stress they caused. It was much lower and milder. In terms of dealing with disruptive positive feedback technologies, the Gens and Millennials have gotten off a lot easier than their predecessor 19th and 20th century population cohorts did.
"What am I here to do?"
The deep stress of any disruptive boom is that it changes the answer to this question for many people in the community. When agriculture replaces hunting and gathering the answer for most people changes to "I'm a farmer." and "I'm a farmer's wife." A few people of the community pick up other answers such as "I'm a priest." When industrialization replaces agriculture the common answer changes again, and becomes a hundred or a thousand different answers.
This answer changing is deeply scary for most people, rich and poor, high and low, alike. "OK... if I'm now an [X], what do I do?" People have to learn new ways and this is even more frustrating for adults than it is for kids. And when the answer is some variant of, "Umm... I'm not sure. We're still figuring this out." the frustration triples.
This is why early-stage booms are usually socially stressful as well as financially stressful.
With all of the above in mind, what's coming next?
The Next Big Thing replaces a recession. The recession is a time of dream changing and the NBT is the new big dream.
Finding the NBT is not easy. It takes a lot of searching, and that searching is stressful.
And there is no guarantee of success. Many communities don't find one. They instead become backwaters, and those who stay in them get to reminisce about "the good old days".
-- The End --