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The Challenge of Space Commerce

by Roger Bourke White Jr., copyright November 2017

Introduction

Mankind has sought to fly among the stars since prehistoric times. In many cultures their ancient founding gods descended from the stars to come live on earth.

As mankind's technology has improved over the centuries the prospect of returning the favor and visiting the stars has become more and more likely. A "giant leap for mankind" came in 1969 when humans reached the Moon and walked on its surface.

But the Moon is not a star. It is not even a planet. How much further along on this dream will we proceed over the next century? That is the topic of this essay.

The driving forces for exploring: hobby and commerce

There are two styles of thinking that foster exploring: hobby-style curiosity and money-making commerce.

Hobby Style

The hobby style thinking is the curiosity one feels about what lies over the next hill? Should I take the time and effort to go climb that hill and find out? The time and effort can be small -- a day's hike -- or it can get large and elaborate -- mounting an expedition to reach the South Pole. After the Renaissance took place this curiosity has often been mixed with science -- the expedition becomes billed as a science expedition. Reaching the Moon and the South Pole are classic examples of this. But at the root of this style of exploring is the emotion of curiosity.

Commerce Style

Commerce style exploring is based on money making, as in, "Is there profit to be made from taking the trip to that distant land? If so, I'm in!" The classic example of this is Europeans exploring the Americas after Christopher Columbus and Amerigo Vespucci discovered this "new world" and their followers then demonstrating that there were riches to be made taking goods, people and ideas across the Atlantic.

 

One big difference between hobby style and commerce style is the magnitude of the activity. Hobby style remains small scale while commerce style grows to something enormous in comparison.

What's coming for space?

The hobby style of exploring space has begun. It started with Sputnik back in 1957. The commercial style started shortly thereafter with the launching of communications satellites in the 1960's. Now thousands of flights to space have happened pursuing both hobby and commerce goals. The difference between hobby and commerce style is as evident in space as it is on earth. The commercial activities such as satellite communication, GPS and satellites monitoring what is happening on earth have produced lots and lots of space launches and lots and lots of satellites orbiting earth. The hobby activities, such as putting people on The Moon and the Mars Rover on Mars, remain much smaller in magnitude, but much larger in people's imaginations.

As of now, this difference between commercial activity in earth orbit and hobby activity beyond earth orbit looks likely to continue indefinitely. At this point I can't foresee anything material that will be profitable to move from the various bodies orbiting in the solar system to Earth -- no equivalent to gold, silver and rum coming to Europe from the Americas -- and there is only one thing I can see that will be profitable to move from Earth to any of these bodies orbiting the sun, and that is tourists. (Interstellar is even more so because the costs and journey times are a thousand-fold those of voyages around the solar system.)

So, interplanetary commerce will be based on space tourism. How big an industry that will become is difficult to predict. It will depend a lot on how pleasant and exotic the experience is, as in, how different will a real space vacation be from a VR space vacation experience?

Space Tourism

What will be coming in space tourism?

What I see is an evolution of cruise ship-style tourism happening in space.

One example of this I see coming is a domed city on the Moon, it will be popular just because it is so science fictiony. It will feel like Tomorrowland did at Disneyland, and that will be the whole purpose for having it. Oh, there will be talk about supporting science research, and some will be happening, but that is because that is part of the Tomorrowland theme.

The Necessity Folk will be protesting for "rights" to go there, as they have rights to go to Disneyland. Waiting in line to get such a right will feel OK, just like waiting in line feels OK at Disneyland today.

The domed city on the moon is easy to predict. Harder to figure out is what activities other places in the solar system will support. What will Mars support? What will Venus support? What will asteroids support? Asteroids will be the easist to visit because of their low gravity wells. Venus the toughest because it will be a floating city, not a structure on the surface -- the surface will be much rougher to visit.

Where will "hard core" ambitious class tourists go? As in, what will be an exotic "off the beaten path" vacation for them?

Question: When does visiting the Moon get "ho-hum"?

Answer: After the Disneyland-style domed city is built.

To avoid that ho-humness, what can be done on the Moon that will feel exotic? What can be done outside the domed city?

For those that want an exotic someplace other than the Moon, what will be offered? They will want to go to Mars. Will they want to go beyond Mars?

Conclusion

I foresee that space exploring will continue, but beyond earth orbit it will continue to be a small scale hobbyist oriented activity. It will be small scale and robot-centric. The only activity likely to become commercial beyond earth orbit is space tourism.

Conversely, earth orbit activities are likely to continue to be commercially oriented and the activity in the earth orbiting realm is likely to continue growing steadily. As a result one of the growing challenges will be getting rid of the "space junk" -- obsolete satellites that continue to orbit.

 

 

--The End--

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