Cyreenik Says
The stress in Afghanistan and Pakistan is high. The US and UN have announced their plans to pull out, and they are hoping, hoping, that the security forces they have been training in Afghanistan can now take over and keep the peace.
But with the end of the war in sight, for America, the emotion flowing on all sides is white hot, and the temptation to defect rather than cooperate is in the stratosphere. Adding jalapeno pepper to this soup is the upcoming America-Pakistan Divorce that I talk about below and have talked about before.
We had stress, and we now have the novel incident: American troops burning Korans at Bagram Airfield, the main air force base. This 25 Feb 12 WSJ article, Quran-Burning Protests Escalate by Dion Nissenbaum, talks about the incident about four days after it happened. The burning was a blunder, and it's the beginning of a blunder chain. How much of this blunder was pure accident and how much was Americans and allies engaging in US versus Them ethnic cheap shotting we don't know, and for those upset it's not going to matter much -- this is well on it's way to becoming a fixture in Afghan contemporary legend.
The question now becomes how far does the Blunder Chain spread? If it grows large this could become the beginning of a premature disorderly retreat of Western forces from both Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the damage caused could spread much further than even that.
Here's another step being taken in the America-Pakistan divorce. This 17 Feb 12 Washington Post article, At Iran-Afghanistan-Pakistan summit, a show of unity by Richard Leiby, talks about Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan leaders having a two day summit meeting in Islamabad, Pakistan.
This is a situation that is filled with uncertainty. The post-conflict relation between the US and Pakistan is likely to become quite hostile because the US will no longer need Pakistan, and the two-facedness of its relation with the US during the conflict will become easier to talk about. I talk about this briefly in the December Cyreenik Says, and at length in this editorial on the upcoming American-Pakistan divorce.
This thinking is inspired by the reports that the FBI has arrested another man, Amine El Khalifi, in a terrorist sting operation. This 18 Feb 12 WSJ article, Suspected Terrorist Arrested Near Capitol by Evan Perez, has some early details.
I find this kind of news deeply unsettling for the following reasons:
o This has been staged by the FBI. By this I mean they have been in contact with this nutcase for better than a year. When he finally worked up enough nerve to pull this off they provided him with equipment, and then arrested him with great publicity when he crossed the line of no return.
o This is advertising terrorism. It's not as bad as a successful act would have been, but it's bad. Terrorists do terrorism to advertise their cause, and this terrorist is no exception, and he has had some success. Others will be encouraged by the media exposure he is getting.
o I hope the FBI categorized this operation as a PR expense. They have taken a lot of time and effort to set this up so that they look real good when they arrest him. My point is: This was expensive, some agents have been at this a year. Except for the PR value they should have discouraged this guy a long time ago, and if he wouldn't get discouraged, shut him down in a low-profile way.
o This is getting to be habitual. This is bad for two reasons. First, it's a pattern that more competent terrorists can learn to exploit. They can set up a pasty like this guy to draw FBI attention, then slip around the distraction to do real damage. Second, just like TSA passenger inspection procedures, this can feel real good to community members but not be solving any real problems. The guys, and gals, that fall for these stings are incompetent. They would not likely get even half as close to succeeding if the FBI didn't want to show off some high-profile success. These stings are not rounding up terrorists who are serious threats.
In sum, this kind of sting operation is a ritual, not a solution. It is doing good in the sense that it builds community faith. But, if you don't have faith, it looks like a waste of valuable time and resource.
Very much related is this truth-is-stranger-than-fiction case of Kim Dotcom. This is the story of an social networking entrepreneur who spent millions and years setting himself up for a high-profile, spectacular fall. This 28 Jan 12 Economist article, Dotcom Bust, outlines some of the details. If I was the conspiracy believing type I would swear that the RIAA had agents setting this guy up as a patsy. As it happened he came along at just the right time to take some of the sting from RIAA's defeat on the SOPA bill, covered in this 11 Feb 12 Economist article, ACTA up.
These are separate two incidents, set up by very different groups, but for the same goal: Both are trying to make morality tales into news events.
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