by Roger Bourke White Jr., started February 2017
This is the outline for Visions of 2051, second in the Visions series.
The center of this book is wearables and how they will change how we live and how we think. This will also continue to explore TES and how that will change how we live and how we think. Ambitious class will be explored to show how TES contrasts with it.
For reference: The center of the first book is cyber muses, and the center of the third book is baby clubs.
What is going to get covered here that is not covered in Visions of 2050?
o What is the shopping experience going to be like? -- Thanks to Big Data and cyber those organizations offering products and services will be able to dramatically fine tune what they offer to what a particular person wants. Advertising will be more and more relevant. But, what does this improved targeting get the organizations offering products, and what does it get the customers? What is going to moderate what the product offerers offer so that it harmonizes with what the target customer needs, wants, and can afford? Will the customer's cyber muse help with moderation? Who is teaching home economics good sense? This challenge applies to both TES and luxury offerings.
o Wearables and love -- romance, kids, cats. Wearables can turn on/turn off the love feelings quickly. What else can they do? How will wearables and cyber muses mix? How will pet love and wearables mix? Is there a reason to diminish pet love? How will cyber pets fit in the picture? In theory they can stroke pet emotions even better than real pets can. In situations where expense or cleanliness are issues pets will be replaced by cyber pets and cyber muses. A quick example that comes to mind is someone who no longer has the agility and mobility to maintain a pet. Another is a person who travels much of the time. Will these kinds of people get a cyber pet and be satisfied with it? Will cyber pets get through quarantines (such as those in Australia) faster and simpler? Any other places where cyber pets will be lots more convenient? Will bringing a cyber pet along on a commercial airline flight be more acceptable than bringing a for-real pet? Will it perform in the cabin or be shut down and stowed in the overhead bin?
What will a cyber super pet be like? This a cyber pet that is stroking emotions and instinct much more strongly than a real pet. Pets themselves are substituting for children, and stroking the caring emotions more easily and cheaply than children do.
o Wearables and ambition -- supporting ambition, supporting self-discipline, supporting diligent study habits, supporting saving money -- and something different -- investing.
Is interest in learning an emotion? These days it feels like one to me, but that could be sports thinking in action. If it is an emotion then wearables should be able to influence it. Can this become a substitute for learning the art of self-discipline in study endeavors? These days I routinely think of studying as analytic thinking, not instinctive thinking. Homework was so hard for me as a teenager and MIT student, but there were topics I really enjoyed spending time learning, such as science and military history. Studying other more routine topics became comfortable when I was taking MBA classes at U of Phoenix, and stayed that way for my SLCC courses. As mentioned earlier, even as a teenager I loved studying what I wanted to learn. I loved reading about science and military history. I also read through the World Book encyclopedia as a teenager, but the Encyclopedia Britannica proved too much.
So, is it possible that in the future we will be able to dial up an interest in finishing homework? That mixes with the question of what will it be important to learn in the 2050's? If learning urban legend satisfies the educational needs for most people, why bother to use wearables to learn more? If ambitious people need to learn analytic education, where are they going to find it being taught? Who is going to be sorting out harsh reality-based lessons from urban legend-based lessons? This is going to plague even hard sciences such as physics because many people really, really want things such as Warp Drive and mind transferring to be possible. And many teachers in all disciplines are very opinionated. It is going to be even worse in soft disciplines such as history and psychology where opinions already run rampant.
o Wearables and what other instincts? -- End of World, Exploring, honoring warriors, other honor related... Thoughts: EOW makes people act crazy, but mostly in mildly damaging ways such as selling off all one's personal stuff. EOW investing manias, on the other hand, can get big and damaging. But the manias are few and far between so this emotion will not likely provoke much interest in developing a wearable response. Honor, on the other hand, can lead to lots of high-profile damaging activities such as damaging vengeance acts and honor killings. There will be a wearable response to this.
o Wearables and shaming -- social shaming will become a big part of TES life. It is highly emotional. And, if you and your associates are not working on anything critical, why not let it get big? If you don't need a Big Vision in your life to keep you cooperating with folk around you, then acrimony ("trolling") can suit just fine for day-to-day living.
How will wearables influence shaming? This is highly emotional on both ends, initiating and receiving. But what effect will a wearable controlling those emotions have? I guess it can make the receiver thick-skinned. Will the initiator, the troller, want to dial down his joy at initiating?
What will reactions to shaming be? What is acceptable, what is done but unacceptable? Example: suicide. How will self abuse as a reaction to social shaming be handled?
oo How is busybody prescriptionism going to fit in? Who gets to put their nose in other people's business, and how do they do it? How is social shaming going to work in this realm? This is likely to be the biggest threat people feel in the 2050's. This will be mixed in thoroughly with pervasive surveillance. Will cyber muses get involved in social shaming? Which way? diminish or amplify?
o Self abuse -- How will self abuse show up in an era with pervasive surveillance and with wearables monitoring health in real-time? In the TES world, where people are dealing less and less with hazardous equipment (driving cars) and hazardous jobs (construction), the compelling reasons not to self-abuse become weaker. "Why not? Who is it going to hurt? And I'm certainly enjoying it!"
Conversely, with pervasive surveillance drinking and drug use to abuse will be harder to do in discrete ways -- cyber is watching your health real time, and all the rooms you are moving around in. What will replace drinking and drug abuse as common ways for someone to abuse themselves, just because they want to abuse themselves? For instance, what will wearable abuse be like? Will this be a replacement?
How will this relate to social shaming? It will be complicated, for sure! Social shaming can induce a person to want to self abuse. And a person can get social shamed for self abusing. How to avoid a vicious circle?
o Closely related to shaming are things such as prison, parole, and the ex-con experience. And a currently huge social shaming experience: the registered sex offender experience. How are these going to evolve, and how will wearables influence these?
oo How is exile (prison) going to be handled? This is an instinct-supported ritual so it will modify, but it is unlikely to disappear. Think of kids playing "go to jail".
o Conversely, when is Big Vision-style cooperation needed? One situation that comes to mind is playing team sports. How about dilettante small business projects? Which will benefit from Big Vision-style cooperation?
o Wearables and personal performance enhancement -- better physical performance, stay awake longer, sleep better, enhanced senses, enhanced communication (internalized communication)
Something of a surprise: "driverless people", as in, enhanced multi-tasking, and more definitive alarms when "doing it wrong" in ways that wearables can detect.
Personal performance enhancement is going to be the core of why people get second generation non-medical wearables. The above are the obvious ways they are going to enhance. The enhanced senses will be things like clearer vision in the visible spectrum, first, then enhancement by seeing in UV and IR. Hearing will be hearing beyond the normal human range.
What else? Sensing in a seismic sense, as in, feeling vibrations that are normally not felt? Better other senses... taste, smell, touch? What are the advantages in these, other than being a fussier dilettante at meals?
What will these enhancements let people do that makes a difference? Answering this is a big challenge. They are competing with AI and cyber to do things which make a difference.
Superior coordination which makes yoga, gymnastics and sports much easier.
o What are coming of age rituals going to be in this era of driverless cars, TES, and wearables?
Driverless cars means we will lose getting a driver's license as a widespread coming of age ritual. Likewise, those people who are necessity class, not ambitious class, are not going to have getting a hard-to-acquire diploma and job as coming of age rituals. What will be the replacements for these?
Having a child -- teenage pregnancy -- can be a coming of age ritual that endures. Lots of emotion behind this one. And, perhaps, lots of cyber muse support.
How will cyber muses and wearables affect what are coming of age rituals? Will there be "child" and "adult" cyber muses? Will there be "child" and "adult" wearables? Will getting the adult versions take passing some kind of moderately difficult test? What will kids have to work hard at, and accomplish, and aspire to accomplish, to be seen as having become adults?
Q: Will a coming of age event even be important in necessity social circles?
A: It will be important because this is supported by instinctive thinking. Because of instinct it will likely become even more important. But, because of instinct, the rituals could look quite silly when seen in the context of harsh reality. Think of fraternity initiations. And, these days, college marching band initiations.
oo How will Tender Snowflake child raising and wearables controlling fear interact? The Tender Snowflakes are going to be easy to scare. And their thin-skin outrage emotion easy to provoke. How will wearables deal with these? How much will they suppress? If they do suppress a lot of them, how will Tender Snowflakes differ from people who have learned tolerance and patience by education and widespread cultural experiences, and don't feel the fear or outrage, wearables or not?
And what will be coming-of-age rituals for Tender Snowflakes? Getting a trophy is a common event so it will have to be something else. Something that requires a lot more sustained effort and uncertainty.
oo How will system gaming be handled? Will wearables be used on these activities? This is another feel-good emotion. Will wearables let people feel good when they succeed at gaming the system? Will it amplify the feel good when the gaming is minor? This will let a minor gaming success make someone's day. This, like EOW, produces only mildly damaging results when it succeeds, so wearables may not be concerned... except that unlike EOW these situations come up quite frequently.
oo controlling patriotism: we will like organizations just as much as we like romantic lovers and old marriage partners. How will dissent be handled? How will new ways of thinking about running organizations be handled? How will loyal opposition be handled? If cyber is running Big Business and Big Government, will dissent be important? Where will it still be important? In the necessity lifestyle environment how will dissent affect progress?
oo and war making: Between the mix of wearables influencing patriotism and cyber making suggestions to people, how will patriotism, conflict and military play out? This is going to be very different from the 2010's. What will be the most the same is the joy in rallying around the flag. What will be the most different is picking up a gun and marching off to war. There will be a lot discouraging that from happening. An example being cyber saying "No! No!" and backing that up by not letting the Big Business they control finance the military adventure. If someone wants to go to war, they are going to have to find a way to get luxury money and dilettante activities to support it. The result, if there is one it will be small scale compared to what we think of as a war in the 2010's. It will be more like gang war or guerrilla war than military-on-military war.
oo Pervasive surveillance is going to affect war making. The more you can see the more you can shoot accurately at. If the conflict is between two advanced powers it will start with drone vs. drone over the conflict zone to see who controls the airspace. That phase will end quickly with a winner. That side can then move soldiers and ground drones more openly. The loser side will have to hide in various ways -- the simplest being just become part of the crowd, as we have in terrorism today. What other ways?
These conflicts I'm envisioning are not going to be total war affairs with nuclear mixed in. They are going to be like Middle East conflicts of today -- local regions with local issues, local governments, and lots of proxy-style intervention.
Additional thought: the hiding side may use mosquito-size drones that can go undetected for a while. Maybe, but as I think about it, not likely because any control signals back and forth can be easily traced.
oo recreational mind altering: so many new ways of getting drunk, high, whatever... and with recovering being quick and easy. Beyond getting high there is searching for new realities, new dimensions of experience, whatever... Timothy Leary LSD-style stuff.
Many kinds of mind altering will still include rituals, just because. An example that comes to mind is doing hallucinations in a sweat lodge. This ritual can be continued, but the wearables will add consistency to getting a vision, and reduce the risks of overdoing the physiological stresses that are part of the ritual. The rituals will be part of the dilettante activities people engage in. This will be something they are passionate about.
How will dangerous activities like parachuting, risky sports and risky entertaining mix with mind altering. What will be the fate of "Hold my beer..."?
oo the straight medical stuff: early warning, early fixing, what difference will this make? What will we take for granted?
There is lots and lots of ritual mixed in to health care. These days this tendency to ritualize shows up both in how patients and health care people treat each other and in how health care is paid for. The government regulations and health insurance practices are both just nuts -- both are held deeply hostage to The Curse of Being Important. (A much simpler "patient pays" system would be lots less expensive and more rational.)
This isn't going to change. Even though wearables can in theory simplify health care enormously, there will still be instinctive demand for a lot of ritual -- "demand" in the "consumer demand for a product" sense. So, even if the combination of wearables and pervasive surveillance can bring "fast fixy" to people, they will still want rituals of many kinds entwined in the health process. The rituals will be nutty when looked at from a cool-headed analytical perspective, but many health care participants will want them and think they are both very important and comforting.
oo Mixing urban legend with emotion controlling. Most of what Necessity Folk will learn in their schooling, entertainment and recreation will be urban legend. Why not? It is comfortable and it won't effect their well-being very much because cyber is controlling the material, service and transportation functions. What will this lead to? It could lead to panics and witch hunts, but the wearables should be able to dampen the impact of those by damping the fear emotions that power them. It can lead to lots of social shaming. This is likely to be a major time and attention consumer in Necessity Folk circles. Gossip will experience a strong revival.
o Baby making -- (also in Visions of 2052) How is gene editing going to be handled? What about adding nanotech and other monitoring and performance enhancing paraphernalia?
o Food production -- How is vat-grown food going to fit into the system? On one hand it is techno stuff messing with food, on the other it is saving animals from slaughter. The feeling I get from current articles is that it is not as reviled as, say, Monsanto. It currently seems to be mixing with 3D printing so the shape of what comes out can be designed.
o Cosplay -- There is going to be lots and lots of cosplay. How will it evolve? How elaborate will it get? This is likely to be something that Necessity People want declared a right, so they can spend necessity money, time and energy on it. (it is also going to be popular with ambitious people) How will cosplay and VR/AR mix? How much will it influence real world events? How will it mix with things such as product availability and social shaming? How much with celebrities and marketing? My guess is: a whole lot.
o Booth Babe -- early application for human-looking, talking robots. It's a surprise application for me. LoL! But after thinking about it, it makes sense. The babes don't need to know their product in depth, they are there simply to attract people with their appearance and personality. It's a monotonous job which makes it quite eligible for automation. Bonus: the android booth babes will know their products a whole lot better.
o Sex toys -- One of the earliest applications for AI and human-looking robots. One of the earliest because it's so simple to do and the instinctive thinking supporting it is so strong. And the frustration with real-world relations with real-world opposite sex is so common and so strong. Think of all the love songs and stories about unrequited love.
o Legal Systems -- dispute resolution and entertainment
o Thinking in TES -- what will thinking be like in the various TES environments? (1788)
o Classes in TES -- Necessity, Ambitious, Shaming, Nomads, others (1268)
o paycheck to paycheck living -- the paycheck-to-paycheck lifestyle in TES (2749)
o Money in TES -- Necessity, Luxury, Investing money in the 2050's (1070)
o Immigration and TES -- Lots less because less economic motivation, but still the exploring instinct. (713)
o The Paralympics (or Special Olympics) evolve into the Paralympics Plus or Extra Special Olympics in which the competitors are using lots of augmenting paraphernalia. (426)
o Enfranchisement in TES -- how to keep humans invested in being good community members, not disrupters of various sorts such as gangsters. (1070)
o Wearables and Us versus Them -- using wearables to modify this instinct (904)
o Wearables and fear -- mild altering, plus airports, NIMBY, when familiar activities are transformed into strange ones. (in wearables) (1411)
o Gene editing by everyone -- Gene editing tools are getting more numerous, diverse and cheaper. (1187)
o Preppers in 2050 -- The instinct to build a place to hunker down during the coming apocalypse is strong in some people. It's not going away. (547)
o Mixing Romance and Wearables -- twist a dial to fall in love, or out of love (1776)
o Leisure time -- how this will be experienced (1145)
o more Wise Old Man stories -- moving an experienced mind into a new, young body. This can be a rich man's hobby. What benefits will he/she experience? Meet for-real new interesting girls, not cyber girls, don't need young for those. But yes, need the young body for extreme party-hearty. What else? Not booze, wearables are doing that. Are there other situations -- ones where it is profitable to the community to do so? How do avatars relate to wise old man stories and experiences? When will an avatar do in place of a young body?
Changing gender for the next young body experience. What else? Getting in some kind of animal body? Umm... hard to match human thinking with animal brain structure.
A story of a wise old man becoming the body of a child living in a North Korean-style dystopia. What does he do? What if "he" takes over the body of a girl child, and experiences lots of sex abuse as well as other kinds. How can he respond cleverly, and in ways that won't get him beaten up some more, or even killed for being some kind of infiltrating traitor? What can he do to end/diminish the dystopia?
o Can I come up with another Super Spy Weekend surprise satire? Something involving Tattoos and T-Shirts style marriage? Really fancy, really showy, ritual is important. What's the objective? Who will be impressed?
o What are soldiers and war-style conflicts going to be like? What kind of story with formal soldiers covered by drones on one side, and informal terrorist-style soldiers hiding among civilians on the other? Any conflict conditions where both can act like out-and-out soldiers? It will be a strange situation. This will be a proxy war. Perhaps in New Guinea? Modernizers versus traditionalist hill people? Modernizers trying to switch to TES? The hill people seeing betrayal, getting help from whom?
o Social shaming story. -- Something based on today's hyper-feminism trend. Being too prescriptionist, and getting away with it because of Tender Snowflakism. Lots of gossipers who have social-based teeth, and use them. Town Without Pity theme.
o Real big challenge: an Agatha Christy-like mystery in a world of pervasive surveillance. Even more so with pervasive wearables monitoring people's health real time.
o Space tourism -- a domed city on the Moon, it is popular just because it is so science fictiony. It will feel like Tomorrowland at Disneyland, and that will be the whole purpose for having it. Oh, there will be talk about supporting some science research, but that's because that is part of the Tomorrowland theme. And the Necessity Folk will be protesting for some "rights" to go there. Waiting in line to get such a right will feel OK, just like waiting in line feels OK at Disneyland today. What will Mars support? Where will "hard core" ambitious class tourists go? Will they want to go beyond Mars? Any space commerce to speak of? Any reason to put in a Space Elevator?
o Megan's Party Time which is about a TES young woman going through her daily routine. What is going to keep her from getting ambitious? One inspiration is The Devil wears Prada where the protagonist gives up on ambition to keep her existing friends. (4735)
o Baby Club which is about picking how to have a young one. (Have to work on how this will be different from Visions 2052) (6137)
o Wise Old Man -- JC version is about Jesus being a wise old man in the 2050's sense. (1031)
o Hard Times -- more on a cyber-induced recession to stop a populist ruler from ruining the country. (6823)
o The Princess, The Fly, and City Hall -- disabled person helping around city hall (2600)
o He's the One? -- romance with wearables, deciding he is right before turning on the wearable (3726)