by Roger Bourke White Jr., started February 2017
This is the outline for Visions of 2051, second in the Visions series.
The center of this book is wearables and how they will change how we live and how we think. This will also continue to explore TES and how that will change how we live and how we think. Ambitious class will be explored to show how TES contrasts with it.
For reference: The center of the first book is cyber muses, and the center of the third book is baby clubs.
What is going to get covered here that is not covered in Visions of 2050?
o Wearables and love -- romance, kids, cats. Wearables can turn on/turn off the love feelings quickly. What else can they do?
o Wearables and ambition -- supporting ambition, supporting self-discipline, supporting diligent study habits, supporting saving money -- and something different -- investing.
o Wearables and what other instincts? -- End of World, Exploring, honoring warriors, other honor related... Thoughts: EOW makes people act crazy, but mostly in mildly damaging ways such as selling off all one's personal stuff. Investing manias, on the other hand, can get big and damaging. But the manias are few and far between so this emotion will not likely provoke much interest in developing a wearable response. Honor, on the other hand, can lead to lots of high-profile damaging activities such as damaging vengeance acts and honor killings. There will be a wearable response to this.
o Wearables and shaming -- social shaming will become a big part of TES life. It is highly emotional. How will wearables influence it? Closely related are things such as prison, parole, and the ex con experience.
o Wearables and personal performance enhancement -- physical, stay awake longer, sleep better, enhanced senses, enhanced communication (internalized), driverless people, as in, enhanced multi-tasking, and more definitive alarms when doing it wrong.
o What are coming of age rituals going to be in this era of driverless cars, TES and wearables?
Driverless cars means we will lose getting a driver's license as a widespread coming of age ritual. Likewise, those people who are necessity class, not ambitious class, are not going to have getting a hard-to-acquire diploma and job as coming of age rituals. What will be the replacements for these? How will cyber muses and wearables affect what are coming of age rituals? Will there be "child" and "adult" cyber muses? Will there be "child" and "adult" wearables? Will getting the adult versions take passing some kind of moderately difficult test? What will kids have to work hard at, and accomplish, to be seen as having become adults? Q: Will a coming of age even be important in necessity social circles? A: It is likely to stay important because this is supported by instinctive thinking. Because of instinct it will likely become even more important.
o Wearables -- this is the center of Book Two, and the center of this is how wearables can influence emotions. If they can influence emotions they can influence thinking in big ways. Closely related is how they can affect human performance, but the emotions will be the core.
ooo How will Us versus Them be handled? This comes across as fear. Where will it be suppressed, where will it be allowed to blossom? (sports teams) Racism in the US these days is more ritual than fear. How will it evolve? Closely related, how will Tender Snowflakism evolve? How will college campuses evolve? Will they split into two kinds? Will there be necessity class campuses filled with Tender Snowflakes, and ambitious class campuses filled with hard learning and hard inquiring activities?
How will Tender Snowflake child raising and wearables controlling fear interact? The Tender Snowflakes are going to be easy to scare. And their thin-skin outrage emotion easy to provoke. How will wearables deal with these? How much will they suppress? If they do suppress a lot of them, how will Tender Snowflakes differ from people who have learned tolerance by education and widespread cultural experiences, and don't feel the fear, wearables or not?
oo How will system gaming be handled? Will wearables be used on this? This is another feel-good emotion. Will wearables let people feel good when they succeed at gaming the system? Will it amplify the feel good when the gaming is minor? This will let a minor gaming make someone's day. This, like EOW, produces only mildly damaging results when it succeeds, so wearables may not be concerned... except that unlike EOW these situations come up quite frequently.
oo controlling love: this creates rock-solid marriages in situations where today marriages would go on the rocks. This is likely to be a high-profile use. How can it be abused? If a person in a relation tolerates too much, what happens? If the situation is really untenable, what does the person, and their wearables, do then? Who decides if it is untenable? This is a lot like deciding a divorce is an acceptable solution in the 2010's. But how much higher must the abuse and damage done get when wearables are involved?
oo controlling patriotism: we will like organizations just as much as we like romantic lovers and old marriage partners. How will dissent be handled? How will new ways of thinking about running organizations be handled? How will loyal opposition be handled? If cyber is running Big Business and Big Government, will dissent be important? Where will it still be important?
oo and war making: Between the mix of wearables influencing patriotism and cyber making suggestions to people, how will patriotism, conflict and military play out? This is going to be very different from the 2010's. What will be the most the same is the joy in rallying around the flag. What will be the most different is picking up a gun and marching off to war. There will be a lot discouraging that from happening. An example being cyber saying "No! No!" and backing that up by not letting the Big Business they control finance the military adventure. If someone wants to go to war, they are going to have to find a way to get luxury money and dilettante activities to support it. The result, if there is one, will be small scale compared to what we think of as a war in the 2010's. It will be more like gang war than military war.
oo recreational mind altering: so many new ways of getting drunk, high, whatever... and with recovering being quick and easy. Beyond getting high there is searching for new realities, new dimensions of experience, whatever... Timothy Leary LSD-style stuff.
How will dangerous activities like parachuting and risky entertaining mix with mind altering. What will be the fate of "Hold my beer..."?
oo the straight medical stuff: early warning, early fixing, what difference will this make? What will we take for granted?
oo How is busy-body prescriptionism going to fit in? Who gets to put their nose in other people's business, and how do they do it? How is social shaming going to work? This is likely to be the biggest threat people feel in the 2050's. Will cyber muses get involved in social shaming? Which way? moderate or amplify?
oo How is exile (prison) going to be handled? This is a instinct-supported ritual so it will modify, but it is unlikely to disappear.
oo Mixing urban legend with emotion controlling. Most of what Necessity Folk will learn in their schooling, entertainment and recreation is urban legend. Why not? It is comfortable and it won't effect their well-being very much because cyber is controlling the material, service and transportation functions. What will this lead to? It could lead to panics and witch hunts, but the wearables should be able to dampen the impact of those by damping the emotions that power them. It can lead to lots of social shaming. This is likely to be a major time and attention consumer in Necessity Folk circles. Gossip will experience a strong revival.
o Baby making -- (also in Visions of 2052) How is gene editing going to be handled? What about adding nanotech and other monitoring and performance enhancing paraphernalia?
o Pervasive surveillance is going to affect war making. The more you can see the more you can shoot accurately at. If the conflict is between two advanced powers it will start with drone vs. drone over the conflict zone to see who controls the airspace. That phase will end quickly with a winner. That side can then move soldiers and ground drones more openly. The loser side will have to hide in various ways -- the simplest being just become part of the crowd, as we have in terrorism today. What other ways?
These conflicts I'm envisioning are not going to be total war affairs with nuclear. They are going to be like Middle East of today -- local regions with local issues, local governments, and lots of "proxy"-style intervention.
Additional thought: the hiding side may use mosquito-size drones that can go undetected for a while.
o Food production -- How is vat-grown food going to fit into the system?
o Classes in TES -- Necessity, Ambitious, Shaming, Nomads, others
o Money in TES -- Necessity, Luxury, Investing
o Immigration and TES -- Lots less because less economic motivation, but still the exploring instinct.
o The Paralympics (or Special Olympics) evolve into the Paralympics Plus or Extra Special Olympics in which the competitors are using lots of augmenting paraphernalia.
o Enfranchisement in TES -- how to keep humans invested in being good community members, not disrupters of various sorts such as gangsters.
o Wearables-1 -- Mind altering and controlling fears with wearables.
o Wearables and Us versus Them -- using wearables to modify this instinct
o Wearables and fear -- airports, NIMBY, when familiar activities are transformed into strange ones. (in wearables)
o Gene editing by everyone -- Gene editing tools are getting more numerous, diverse and cheaper.
o Can I come up with another Super Spy Weekend surprise satire? Something involving Tattoos and T-Shirts style marriage? Really fancy, really showy, ritual is important. What's the objective? Who will be impressed?
o What are soldiers and war-style conflicts going to be like? What kind of story with formal soldiers covered by drones on one side, and informal terrorist-style soldiers hiding among civilians on the other? Any conflict conditions where both can act like out-and-out soldiers? It will be a strange situation. This will be a proxy war. Perhaps in New Guinea? Modernizers versus traditionalist hill people? Modernizers trying to switch to TES? The hill people seeing betrayal, getting help from whom?
o Social shaming story. -- Something based on today's hyper-feminism trend. Being too prescriptionist, and getting away with it because of Tender Snowflakism. Lots of gossipers who have social-based teeth, and use them. Town Without Pity theme.
o Real challenge: an Agatha Christy-like mystery in a world of pervasive surveillance.
o Space tourism -- a domed city on the Moon, it is popular just because it is so science fictiony. It will feel like Tomorrowland at Disneyland, and that will be the whole purpose for having it. Oh, there will be talk about supporting some science research, but that's because that is part of the Tomorrowland theme. And the Necessity Folk will be protesting for some "rights" to go there. Waiting in line to get such a right will feel OK, just like waiting in line feels OK at Disneyland today. What will Mars support? Where will "hard core" ambitious class tourists go? Will they want to go beyond Mars? Any space commerce to speak of? Any reason to put in a Space Elevator?
o Megan's Party Time which is about a TES young woman going through her daily routine. What is going to keep her from getting ambitious? One inspiration is The Devil wears Prada where the protagonist gives up on ambition to keep her existing friends.
o Baby Club which is about picking how to have a young one. (Have to work on how this will be different from Visions 2052)